Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. He cares about the American people.. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. The counties are also mostly small and rural. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence The morale of the people up there is bad. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Two states have announced recounts. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. To accept cookies, click continue. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. 'I Should Start Voting'. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. He pissed off a lot of people. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. Pre-performance Lobby events. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. People need to get a job, get out and work. But according to the. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. The counties are also mostly small and rural. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. What happened to our Democratic Party? From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. Its horrible. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. 2016 Trump. That is, until this year. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. 0:00 0:00. I dont think you should take that away from me.. And we just want that to continue. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Its just not that great, Paul said. Farming also is huge here. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. At least Biden is honest, he said. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. I think he is more for giving to the people.. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. This claim is basically absurd. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. I believe in a time cycle. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. But thats not the picture I look at. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. They need to take care of the older people here. I kind of keep in my bubble. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. This includes personalizing content and advertising. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. . America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. Nothing is free, Hawker said. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said.