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Now with football behind us, golf betting should be the focus for many. Sungjae Im is one of the few players in this field who is teeing it up for the fourth week in a row. Hes been bleeding strokes back to the field the closer he gets to the green. He just needs to translate that global success to the PGA Tour, but his skill set should match up to Riviera. This is his third trip to the Wyndham, having finished second in his first three starts both of which were decided by playoffs. With the importance of those skills at Riviera, it should be little surprise that he has missed the cut in all three trips to this event. THE MATERIAL ON THIS SITE MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, DISTRIBUTED, TRANSMITTED, CACHED OR OTHERWISE USED, EXCEPT WITH THE PRIOR WRITTEN PERMISSION OF DISCOVERY GOLF, INC. 2023 DISCOVERY GOLF, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Itll be great to see Tiger play this week but lets temper any expectations. USE OF AND/OR REGISTRATION ON ANY PORTION OF THIS SITE CONSTITUTES ACCEPTANCE OF OURVISITOR AGREEMENT(UPDATED 1/6/23),PRIVACY AND COOKIES NOTICE(UPDATED 1/4/23) ANDCALIFORNIA PRIVACY NOTICE. He hasnt won on American soil since the 2015 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Hes a great fit and, even if he doesnt cash an outright for us, hes still been good enough at this event to get us a nice chunk. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Rahm didnt have his best stuff in Phoenix, and he was still in contention throughout the entirety of the event. Young finished T-13th last year at Bay Hill and T-29th last week at the Honda Classic. 7800. Every architect wants their holes to be challenging, entertaining and pretty, but these are the things that happen on the surface, and only after other critical elements have been put in place. Hes incredibly talented and seems to only be getting better. High Upside: Kevin Na ($6,900 DraftKings | $8,200 FanDuel). As for Conners, hes been somewhat shockingly bad of late, most noticeably at Riviera where he lost four strokes tee-to-green, something he hasnt done since the Memorial in June of 2021. RELATED:PGA Championship 2022 picks: The 13 best bets to win at Southern Hills, Most Likely To Disappoint: Webb Simpson ($7,800 DraftKings | $9,400 FanDuel). If youve been reading this column over the past month or so, youve been cashing tickets. Before placing a wager on a specific golfer or matchup, you can check out how theyre doing in previous rounds. Powers, Golf Digest: Chris Kirk (+600, DraftKings) Coming off his first win in eight years, Kirks confidence should be riding high. RELATED: Want to become a better golf bettor? Adding to the challenge is that every golfer can be used only three times per each of four Segments. But given how well hes played in 2022 from the tee to the green, a putter that works for him might be able to change that. Now were getting a little bold. Of golfers priced $7,700 and greater on DraftKings, only Morikawas short game has been worse during that stretch. He lost three strokes on approach at Riviera, a trend that has become more common for him than in any other point in his career. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. 72-hole winning score: 279.5 (Par 288) In total, 27 of the top 30 players in the Official World Golf Rankings tee it up at Bay Hill. Speaking of sour short games, enter Corey Conners. What better place to do that than with our WM Phoenix Open picks for this week. About Us Compared to other top players, he has much less experience at Bay Hillplaying here just once, finishing T-49 in 2015. Most essential will be navigating the renovated greens and the surrounds, which will be treacherous to recover from. Rahm has two top-10's in four tries and tied for 21st last year, when he rebounded from a second-round 73 and shot 65 on Sunday. Lee (-110) over Kuchar); Powers: 1 for 1 (Griffin (+100) over C. Davis); Gdula: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1, Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Hennessey: 11-6-0 (up 4.1 units); Gehman: 10-5-2 (up 3.92 units); Powers: 9-8-0 (up 0.63 units); Lack: 4-4-0 (down 0.3 units); Mayo: 8-8-0 (down 0.51 units); Caddie: 8-9-0 (down 1.16 units); Gdula: 5-11-1 (down 6.42 units), RELATED: Here are the odds for every player in the field at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. I believe there are two legitimate paths to victory at Southern Hillselite approach play or elite around-the-green ability. But the hole I like best at Bay Hill is the par-4 eighth, a lovely dogleg-right with a diagonal green perched above a small circular pond. Sportsbooks have Will Zalatoris, Shane Lowry, and Sungjae IM at the top of the betting board as the tour goes to Memphis next week for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Both are ideal fits for this type of ball-striking course and Rahm has been a Top 10 machine here as the hometown guy. Cameron Young is +4000 to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational this weekend. Wyndham Clark ($7,800 DraftKings | $9,500 FanDuel). Gdula: Tony Finau (+240, FanDuel) Its such a good field that even the top 10 will be hard for long shots to squeeze into with much success. Whats the secret of longevity and good golf? Which is why betting on props, with their lower golf odds, is a terrific way to earn while enjoying the event itself. Already one of the most prestigious events on the schedule, the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational gets official "elevated status" and a $20 million purse. Sedgefield Country Club hosts the Wyndham Championship this week, where FedEx Cup playoff positions are on the line. RELATED:PGA Championship 2022: This drone video shows how Southern Hills has been transformed, High Upside: Jason Day ($7,500 DraftKings | $9,500 FanDuel). From Golf Digest Architecture Editor emeritus Ron Whitten: I've always been fascinated by the design of Bay Hill, Arnold Palmer's home course for over 45 years (although Tiger Woods owns it, competitively-speaking, as he's won there eight times.) Its yet another elevated event on the PGA Tourso its dangerous to put our chips down on one name over 20-1, but thats what were doing. RELATED:Tony Finau reveals the LIV golfers he misses having on tour the most, Tyrrell Hatton ($8,100 DraftKings | $9,900 FanDuel). I always thought the wrap-around-a-lake par-5 sixth was Dick Wilson's version of Robert Trent Jones's decade-older 13th at The Dunes Club at Myrtle Beach. Were getting value based on Rorys slow start on the West Coast, which was mainly short-game induced. 1.3%. American Express: Brian Harman. The short game wont be an issue, and with the expected blustery conditions, Fleetwood is primed to notch his fourth top 10 at Bay Hill in seven starts. That continues a streak that started with Brandon Gdula correctly predicting Scottie Schefflers win at the WM Phoenix Open (13-1) and Rick Gehman hitting Jon Rahm at the Genesis Invitational (+750). But, as Schauffele explained on Friday at Bay Hill, Kitayama lifts like one. Usually. RELATED: Phil Mickelson drops to depressingly low standing in the Official World Golf Ranking. By cutting the cut. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood. Were burning another big name after whiffing of Fitzpatrick last week. However, over his last 20 rounds, hes losing 0.28 strokes per round, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. Tony Finau ($9,500 DraftKings | $11,400 FanDuel). "Yeah, Kurt, Finau had a stretch of 10 straight events in which he gained strokes putting, but that came to an end with losses in two straight. If I was designing a golf course specifically for Cameron Youngs skill-set, it would look a whole lot like Bay Hill, as the 26-year-old remains one of the most dominant drivers of the ball in the world and an excellent long iron player. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! For a second straight week we have an elevated field, and now with Will Zalatoris here we have 23 of the top 25 players in the worldits only fitting that the stars have shown out in Los Angeles. Caddie: Max Homa (+130) over Scottie Scheffler (DraftKings) Homas ball-striking is in an elite category right now, and theres no reason to believe he shouldnt keep up his hot form. World No. Hennessey: Keith Mitchell This is a bolder call, but I can afford to be a little bold after getting a win from Chris Kirk last week. Vegas struggles around-the-greens, and hes dismal once he gets on the putting surfaces. CJ Cup: Matt Fitzpatrick. It has a variety of futures, as well. The well-rounded nature of Niemanns metrics, gaining strokes in all four major categories over his past 30 rounds, should provide him with everything he needs to contend this week. I love to pounce on players that are coming off an MC in which they gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, which was the case for Matsuyama at Riviera. RELATED: Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2023: Our red-hot experts make a consensus bet Every could live off that for life if he wanted, but he's still chasing the dream on the PGA Tour . He has two top-17 finishes in his past three trips to this event and is coming off a T-10 in Phoenix last week. You can bet on the outright winner. When it comes to attacking the Sedgefield CC course, the South Korean has the ideal skill set, as he frequently splits fairways and ignites his scoring clubs. Tiger Woods' first appearance in a regular PGA Tour event in nearly 850 days was eventful for a number of reasons. The best golf advice from our PGA expert picks is right here. Adding to . J.T. After placing T6 in his 2019 tournament debut, he has since gone on to place T9 and T24 in his subsequent appearances. He simply lost all his strokes with the putter, something that I can forgive. Hes also top-30 in scoring on par 3s longer than 200 yards and par-4s over 500 yards, two huge buckets here at Bay Hill. Usually. Tiger Woods ($7,300 DraftKings | $8,900 FanDuel). For instance Kim was one of the. 2023 Minute Media - All Rights Reserved. Hes dropped strokes to the field driving and on approach in consecutive events for the first time since earning his full tour card, but the long irons have continued to be much better than the field, and while distance is always going to be lacking, his accuracy continues to be elite. Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. Arnold palmer invitational picks golf digest. WMPO: Collin Morikawa. Scottie won Phoenix, Rahm won Riv. At the beginning of the season, sportsbooks will give you value odds on players to win future tour events, as there is no form to base the latest golf odds. He has the ball-striking to put together a strong showing at Bay Hill, and while the putter is still hit-or-miss, its not nearly as bad as it used to be. Your sportsbooks per-place payout will vary from one book to another, so be careful to compare them before placing an each-way bet. I expect the Japanese superstar to remind us that he is still a top-20 player in the world and have a great chance to pick up PGA Tour victory No. Thats going to be half the battle at Southern Hills and should allow Mitchell to often play from the correct position. Burns is quietly coming off a T-7 at the Phoenix Open and a T-11 at The American Express. (Pat Mayo also had runner-up Eric Cole as a +900 top-10 bet.) His best finish is a T-35 at the Masters, and his metrics are so far from what we would expect. The play: NBA, Pelicans money line over Trail Blazers The odds/wafer: +105 ($30 to win $31.50) The book: BetMGM Time/TV: 10:10 p.m. (Bally Sports) Our take: Throughout the course of our daily best . February 28, 2023 12:30 pm ET. For our complete review, visit Bay Hill's Places to Play page here. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports. Being responsible about gambling means knowing whether to gamble, Longshot pick to win WM Phoenix Open: J.T. Aside from the experts below, Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field at this year's . RSM Classic: Brendon Todd. When it comes to the largest tournaments, some bookmakers give up to 8 or 10 spots. Atop the FedEx Cup rankings, he has a knack for diving deep, which will come in handy as he is one of our PGA picks. Learn from Jon Rahms abbreviated action to maximise your power game. Weve seen six starts from Simpson since his return from injury at The Players. Hes been electric at Bay Hill, teeing it up 11 times. Weve been on a heater in the matchup and top-10 markets, going up more than 27 units this season. In the last year, hes lost 0.24 strokes putting per round and has lost 0.09 per round in the short-game categories combined. PGA picks this week can be made or broken by the tiny variances in schedules and tournaments. Ahead of the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando and the concurrent Puerto Rico Open, PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan spelled out in a memo to players released on Wednesday how most tournaments that were just Even more concerning, he fell down the leaderboard over the weekend at both the Genesis Invitational and Honda Classic. CJ Cup: Sungjae Im. In a shocking turn of events, its his approach play that has held him back. In general, we provide our Free sports picks today on time, giving you plenty of time to digest our research and get the best golf odds on our PGA picks this week. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. I like him to contend, and this number is probably higher than it should be with Schefflers recent win and the win here last year. He enters the competition ranked 27th in the FedEx Cup standings (seventh among players who have never won). The 4th elevated event on the PGA Tour schedule takes place this week with the star-studded 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Corey Conners ($7,600 DraftKings | $9,600 FanDuel). Riviera will reward distance, a solid short game and experience en route to success this week. Despite the negative flatstick, he still finished T-9 and T-14 in those events. Rules Review: I thought my ball was lost and put another in play, then found my first in the hole(!) Before this week's PGA Tour event, McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2023 Sony Open. To qualify for the playoffs, players will need to finish in the top three in their respective divisions. Since the Phoenix Open, hes gained a total of 10.8 strokes on approach, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. Hes third in weighted SG/approach over the past year, fourth in wSG/off the tee and 11th in par-5 scoring, per RickRunGood.com (weighted strokes-gained numbers factors in field strength). Hopefully its one of his hot weeks. Having returned to his alma maters home state of Texas, the 25-year-old is the clear favorite, and a win here may be just the beginning for this talented golfer. For the sake of placing a wager, every online sportsbook makes use of geolocation technology to determine your current location. Rick Gehman, founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industrys leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Chris Kirk captured his first PGA Tour title since 2015, outlasting 34-year-old rookie Eric Cole in a sudden-death playoff. Thats one of his better stretches since early 2020. There are not many places that I'll roster Zach Johnson but sitting at $6500 on DraftKings and knowing his track record at Bay Hill, it's hard to ignore. There are no weaknesses in his game, but perhaps this is a letdown spot and a chance for us to finally get some value on someone down the board (please)? The rating, however, was a 0.23 because Golf Channel is in fewer homes than the CW Network. A tie for ninth place at the Irish Open and a tie for a twenty-first place at St. Andrews are recent finishes. None of us trade notes before the week but weve all arrived at the same conclusion in regards to a particular Wake Forest Demon Deacon at an event with the most iconic Wake Forest alum in the tournament name. Matchup Results from the Honda Classic: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Griffin (+130) over Frittelli and O Hair, Round 1); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Meronk (+105) over C. Davis); Gehman: 1 for 1 (M.W. Due to the big field sizes and the four-day format, many longshots win or come close to victory on the tour. Here are the players who have my interestand those who certainly dontthis week at the 2023 Genesis Invitational. During that stretch, hes also gaining 0.22 strokes per round around the green, the fifth-best rate of anyone $9,000 or more. Few golfers possess the upside that Na doesevidenced by his five wins since 2018. Something clearly clicked for him at Riviera, and this is the number to cash in on. Our results with players at this years Hot List testing show that some players cant carry a 5-iron farther than they fly a 7-iron. Hes historically one of the better short-game players on tour, gaining 0.71 strokes around-the-green and on the green over his past 100 rounds. Golf Digest - Does Kurt Kitayama even lift, bro? Ill elaborate more below. Hes never played API, but hes been especially potent on Bermudagrass in his short career. 2023 Fantasy Golf Rankings, News and Draft Kit DraftKings PGA: Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks and Strategy Rory McIlroy has quite the track record at Bay Hill, and that garners him a spot among Len Hochberg's picks to click in this week's contests on DraftKings. The last time Zalatoris competed in this event, he placed 29th. Pick to Win WM Phoenix Open (0.5 Units): Xander Schauffele (+1400). Looking at the top-four finishers at The Honda Classic, you would've thought this event was being held at the same time as a marquee golf tournament (like the Puerto Rico Open will be going against the Arnold Palmer Invitational this coming week).. Powers: Will Zalatoris Morikawa is my main play, but Im going to have a lot of trouble not adding Zalatoris at the 11th hour on Wednesday evening. It's fair to say that LIV's numbers are on par with the first round of last week's PGA Tour event. At most sportsbooks, you can wager on a player to finish in the top three, top five, or top 10 of their event. Our outright panelwhich consists of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds at Bay Hill; Pat Mayo of DraftKings and FantasyNational.com; Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel; Rick Gehman of RickRunGood.com; Andy Lack of RRG and his Inside Golf Podcast; and your two authorsis all aboard the Willy Z train. His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. From who they believe will be the leader at the end of each round to who they believe will finish first in various countries. A good way to hedge that is by employing him in OAD. He won the Masters by a slender margin, giving him his first green jacket. This is some of the best golf Hatton has played in quite some time. There are plenty of Augusta National vibes in the terrain at Southern Hills, so the 2021 Masters champion should be very comfortable. Hes one of the longest hitters on tour and has gained strokes around-the-green in five straight. Zozo: Sungjae Im. PGA Championship picks 2022: Players to Fade This Week (who will disappoint) Caddie: Jon Rahm (11-1, DraftKings) There will be testy 5- to 10-footers all week and Rahm has been shaky at. As was already mentioned, betting on nationality is a unique and exciting choice. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. This new column, branched off from Horses For Courses, will focus on the statistical background of the PGA picks. Prop bets are wagers that dont necessarily rely on the outcome of a certain game or event. As. Gdula: Keegan Bradley (75-1, FanDuel) Bradleys number on FanDuel Sportsbook is a lot longer than youll see in other places. So lets dive in. He won this event in 2016 and has four top-25s in his past six trips. The metrics are sour with no signs of them turning around. All of the major golf tournaments, as well as additional significant PGA and European Tour events, are covered by us. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keegan Bradley (+650, Bet365) Keegan hasnt missed a cut at Bay Hill in his 10 most recent appearances at Bay Hill, which includes four finishes of 11th or better. RELATED: Our latest podcast explores the gambling revolution already hitting golf, Pick To Win: Billy Horschel ($7,400 DraftKings | $9,100 FanDuel). The field includes 44 of the top 50 . He has four top-25 finishes in his past five starts at the PGA Championship. There were also three new members elected to the USGA executive committee. Rules of Golf Review: How do I find my nearest point of relief? The 10-time PGA Tour winner remains one of the best short iron players in this field over a large sample size, which has led him to countless high-end finishes at not just Sedgefield, but at. Thats something Niemann thrived with during his win at Riviera earlier this year. We barely cashed Nick Taylor Top 20 (+230) but it was downhill from there with Matthew Fitzpatrick missing the cut, Ben Griffin doing the same, and betting against Rose in a matchup when he won the tournament. Rules Review: What is casual water and how do I play around it? Its a 30-player event with a guaranteed minimum prize pool of $395,000 for the winner. With that in mind, here are our 13 best bets ( odds via DraftKings) to hoist that gold trophy. Rick Gehman, founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industrys leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Its a good number if nothing else. To wager online, you must live in one of the jurisdictions that allow legal sports betting, such as Nevada or Delaware. 2023 Australian Golf Digest. Riviera Country Club is one of the best courses on the PGA Tour, and Tiger Woods is back to play at his own event. Read more about Gambling Safety here. Outside of that, hes showing significant improvement across the board and playing with plenty of confidence. We warned you guys after Scottie Schefflers win in Phoenix once this panel gets hot, we tend to run hot! The PGA Tour and LPGA Tour announced a new mixed-team event that will debut later this year in Florida and replace the QBE Shootout. Each lineup consists of four starters and two bench players that can be rotated after each round. I think this is a spot where we can fade Rahm, on a course that favors the drawers of the ball. With its 18th green at the base of a natural amphitheater, and its primary rough consisting of club-grabbing Kikuyu, Riviera seems tailor-made as a tournament venue. Hes separating himself from his peers on approach and with the putter, two skills that will be rewarded again this week. Its often forgotten that design contribution extended all the way to Australia, where Arnold Palmer in his playing days won an Australian Open and Wills Masters title. A field made up of the top 30 golfers in the season-long FedEx Cup standings. Its a good idea to look for a player who has recently performed well or has a good record on the course in question. Even the best golfers in the world, such as Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas, could be considered underdogs for the most prestigious tournaments. 48,000. Hes finished T2 and T3 here in the past two years, so I love for him to continue in that space and come through as the winner in this elevated event. Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions - 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. RELATED:PGA Championship 2022: The top 100 golfers competing at Southern Hills, ranked. For one thing, it's rather hilly, a rarity in Florida (although not in the Orlando market) and dotted with sinkhole ponds incorporated in the design in dramatic ways. The top 10, where the golfer is just one or two strokes away from winning, can be a predictor of future success. Sanderson Farms Championship: J.T. I love that he is now traveling to a course that will put less pressure on his putter, and I expect him to build upon his 13th-place finish last year. Here are my favorite plays and fades this week at the 2022 PGA Championship. Its always concerning when a golfer is so far from their DNA, and Hatton has also missed the cut in 13 of his 27 career major starts. Hes not short on confidence, winning twice worldwide in the past 14 months. Despite the fact that Horschel's results so far in 2023 haven't been promising, we think that's a bet well . More importantly, hes playing extremely well lately, gaining more than 0.6 strokes per round over his last 16 on approach and finishing T6 in his last start. As analyzed by our PGA expert picks, Shane Lowry has been one of the most reliable golfers in 2022. WM Phoenix Open Hole-in-One odds (Will someone ace the 16th hole? However, he hasnt needed that skill recently, gaining a staggering 20.4 strokes on approach over his past three starts. Rookies, veterans, and journeymen all need good results at Sedgefield Country Club to ensure their place in the FedEx St, where the top 125 players will be announced next week at Jude Championship field in TPC Southwind. ), AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am purse 2023: Payout by player, finishing position [UPDATED], AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am DraftKings golf picks 2023: Best PGA DFS lineup. At these odds, I love for him to show up to a place hes comfortable at and get back to his DNA. Every golfer dreams of getting their handicap down, and weve got news for you. RELATED: Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2023: Our DFS expert dives deep into Rory McIlroys staggering advanced metrics. Last week Young showcased real capabilities of attacking high-danger pin locations. Latest golf news from PGA TOUR, PGA TOUR Champions, KornFerry TOUR He held the lead at this event in 2021 heading into the back nine on Sunday. All advice, including picks and predictions, is based on individual commentators opinions and not that of Minute Media or its related brands. This will be Ims eighth start in nine weeks, which is an unsustainable pace, and we already started to see the wheels come off last weekend at the Honda Classic. Its the first elevated event of the PGA Tour season, meaning that we have a loaded field with eight of the Top 10 golfers in the world teeing it up, including Rory McIlroy making his first start stateside in 2023. Gehman: Justin Thomas (20-1, Bet365) There are more questions than answers in Thomas game right now as he continues to show inconsistencies with his best attributehis approach play. The hope is that Matsuyama finds his DNA this week and puts it all together. Golf betting record in 2023 through Pebble Beach:7-17-1, -3.114 units (0-5 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets)One-and-Done record in 2023: $553,137.22 (Matthew Fitzpatrick at Pebble, $0), Top 10 pick for WM Phoenix Open: Justin Thomas (+220). Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "The Loop," (above) where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy. Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Hes played this event four times and has yet to make the cut. He is statistically among the top 15 golfers in terms of strokes gained on, off, and tee-to-green gains (seventeenth-best) due to his high percentage of green-in-regulation hits (69.83 percent). Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood. He often plays from the rough, but hell have company this week as Riviera features some of the hardest fairways to hit all year. The 2020-21 PGA Tour season ends with this week's Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. The only thing that scares me about Justin Thomas is that his approach play in his most recent starts hasnt been up to his lofty standards. Both of those skill-sets should be critical at Southern Hills, plus add in the WD last week due to injuryand there are more questions than answers for Koepka.